Local watchers believe that in a situation where the country is being hit by worst floods in the region in past 80 years and continuing heavy rains, talking of opening another front for the over half a million troops that had two hyper sensitive borders to protect in the east with India and with Afghanistan in the northwest "wouldn't be wise." Strife in Karachi has always been catalyzing in all turning points in country's political turmoil history that had paved way for martial law.

Police and paramilitary Rangers have so far raided some 300 suspects including several dozen activists of disbanded sectarian outfits who the government believes are responsible for fomenting terrorism in retaliation to operations against them.

The target killing issue picked up during the past few weeks from small pitch battles between political rivals for dominating the administrative control of Karachi; infighting among land grabbing mafias and narcotics cartels, and gang wars. However, analysts believe that a far bigger issue hampering the possibility of any political patch up would be of the changing demography of Karachi.

The absconding militants from northwest tribal areas taking refugee in the Pashtun neighborhoods in Karachi irked MQM and the law enforcers alike. But a far more serious discomfort for the second largest political party in Sindh province and fourth largest in the country, is the threat of mass influx of Pashtun refugees after devastating floods in northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Local watchers believe that it would change the ethnic composition of the city which MQM claimed to have owned with 51 seats in the House of 166 after ruling PPP with 93 seats. ANP holds only two seats, but it dominates some businesses and transportation and street jobs in Karachi with 5 million Pashtun inhabiting the city of 15 million predominantly Muhajirs, or Urdu language speaking MQM supporters. MQM appeared on the mainstream national political scene after a landslide victory in 1988 general elections.

The threat of changing demography of Karachi would challenge the number of electoral constituencies of MQM in coming years, which are being shared by ethnic Sindhi and Punjabi pockets that generally support the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Under this given scenario, analysts do not seem to be optimistic about the possibility of a lasting peace that Islamabad is desperately trying to maneuver. In fact, it seems to have become as difficult as searching a needle in a hay stack.