China's stock market climbed more than one and a half percent on Monday to a four-week high. In fact, the last trading week before the Lunar New Year has seen a rise in each of the past six years. But four of those years also saw slumps in the first trading week after the festival, leaving investors asking themselves whether or not they should sell.
Monday's market climb was led by the blue chips, as the government moved to bolster banking shares and optimism rose over additional state aid to struggling industries.
The Shanghai Composite Index even reached the key 2,000 point mark for the first time since December 22nd. Some experts are saying optimistic investors shouldn't be in a hurry to sell.
Yin Zhongli, researcher of financial institute, CASS, says, "in my opinion, an optimistic investor should choose to hold shares. The market has shown a sign of warming-up, mainly due to the central bank's latest credit data."
Since November, financial institutions in China have seen the scale of their loans increase rapidly. In December alone, the amount of newly-added loans stood at a whopping 770 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the Price-Earning Ratio and the Price-To-Book Ratio are also back to a rational level.
Some insiders say with the implementation of the stimulus plans, they have confidence in the stock market in 2009. But some still suggest investors should be cautious.
Huang Xiangbin, researcher of R&D Center, Cinda Securities, says, "we suggest investors sell as much as half of their shares, because we think the increase of credit figures in December was mainly due to the central bank's measures. It's still too early to say that this is a turning point for the market."
In 2009, the total market value of fully-tradable shares in China will exceed 3.3 trillion yuan. That's around 50 more than last year. Insiders say the economic data and the performance of listed companies in the first half of the year will still be bad. All of that is expected to add pressure to the market.
(CCTV January 21, 2009)
