Among all the major changes in the Middle East, the decline of the role of the United States in the last decade might be the one which has the most profound geopolitical implications. As Washington's influence wanes, other major global powers and regional actors will have a chance to play larger roles.

There is no doubt that the United States will remain a prominent power in global politics for a long time. The US has much larger military expenditures than any other single country in the world, has huge soft power projection, and enjoys obvious advantages in education, science and technology.

However, the last decade has witnessed the US gradually losing its capability to monopolize regional agendas. Its two wars in the name of fighting terror have cost the US a significant portion of its financial and strategic resources. In addition, the global financial crisis since 2008 has especially undermined the US economy, although other countries involved also suffered severe damage.

As a result, the gap between the US and newly rising economies has been further narrowed. From 2001 to 2010, China's GDP has increased from US$1 trillion to $6 trillion, or to put it another way, from one-tenth to a half that of US GDP, during that period.

This change in the balance of resources has triggered intensive discussions about a global power shift. The rising and falling of major global powers have far-reaching implications not only on the world but also the regional power structure of the Middle East. In modern times, the Middle East has actually always been an arena where major powers compete for influence.

On one hand, newly emerging powers have expanded their engagement with the Middle East while the US no longer has the capability to dominate the region's affairs. On the other hand, the US has had to divert some of its large but limited resources and efforts from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region since this region is becoming more and more important in world politics.

The decline of America's role in the Middle East seems to be very obvious. In the 1990s, the US was able to form a coalition of countries across the region and the world as well to drive back Saddam Hussein's invasion into Kuwait. The US organized the Madrid conference for the Middle East peace process in 1991, and had brokered a peace agreement between Palestine and Israel in 1993. The US was also able to contain both Iraq and Iran in the Gulf.

However, in the first ten years of the new century, the US achieved very little, though it did demonstrate its muscle in the region with two counter-terrorism wars, which have been more destructive than constructive. The US had not been able to push the peace process forward, has not been able to stop Iran from advancing its nuclear program, and has not been able to control the direction of "the Arab Spring".

The same story that Great Britain, when it no longer had sufficient economic and strategic resources, had to shift its dominance in the Middle East to the US in the 1970 will happen.?America's decline has allowed and will allow space for other global and regional powers to play their due roles in the region.

Russia and the UN being included in the "Quartet" which met to reignite the peace process in 2002 might be interpreted as former president George W. Bush's modest adjustment of US unilateralism, but the forming of the P5+1 mechanism to address the Iran nuclear issue should be regarded as a logical consequence of America's decline and power decentralization in the region. This signifies that the US, instead of dominating, had to share the power with other major global players in deciding regional agendas, despite its reluctance to do so.

That is not the full story. From 2011 to 2012, China and Russia jointly vetoed two UN Security Council resolutions reflecting the intentions of the US and the West at large which could have lead to external military intervention into Syria's internal political crisis. These vetoes strongly signal that the US no longer has the power to monopolize international decisions on regional affairs.

As a result of America's decline, regional actors have also been playing more and more important roles. Gulf monarchies, which used to have marginal roles, have in recent years demonstrated their ambition to influence regional affairs. A proposal delivered by Saudi Arabia became the outline of the Arab initiative for the Middle East peace process. As such, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have played particularly important roles in bridging reconciliation between Palestinian factions.

Though some regional actors believe that the decline of the US might bring peace and stability to the region, in actuality the situation is much more complex. It is true that with a weaker US, Israel will have to show more restraint in dealing with the Palestinians. For instance, after one week, Israel stopped its "pillar of defense" operations due to pressure from Arab countries, a much shorter time frame than before.

However, America's decline will in many other ways mean more instability for the region. The Middle East is actually a region with several ambitious local players including Iran, Turkey, Egypt and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Without America's strong presence, the competition for geopolitical influence will become more and more intense, which might have a very negative effect on regional security.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit http://www.h5a3.com/opinion/jinliangxiang.htm

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