Members of the Islamist Al Shabaab movement prepare an artillery machine at their base in Mogadishu, Somalia, Aug. 23, 2010. Al Shabaab declared an all-out war against African Union peacekeeping forces and Somali government troops in Mogadishu.?[Xinhua Photo]

After two decades of civil war and criminal anarchy, surely Somalia, on the Horn of Africa, must be the world's most dysfunctional and failed state.

The government – if it has one (and there are at least four claimants) – claims very little territory. Islamic terrorists of the "al-Shabab" movement, allied with Al Qaeda, control vast areas, while pirates are a scourge of international shipping transiting the Suez Canal – demanding heavy protection of the navies of several countries including China.

Some progress has been made in pushing back al-Shabab through 9,000 soldiers of African Union peacekeeping provided by neighboring Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Burundi, and that force is being increased to 17,000 shortly.

The United Nations, meanwhile, is funding a force of 6,000 local police officers trying to avoid a power vacuum in areas won back from al-Shabab by establishing some tenuous form of governance, but the UN says the humanitarian situation remains "critical" and is appealing for $1.5 billion to counter the crisis. It says up to 4 million Somalis, about 40 percent of the population, are in urgent need of aid and famine continues to afflict 250,000 people, especially refugees sheltering in Kenya and Ethiopia.

On February 23 an international conference was held in London to try and move the political process forward, but one has to have reservations about how successful this will be, especially as there already been 16 international conferences over the years, each of them described as "the last chance for Somalia" and each of which achieved very little in terms of allowing the Somali people to enjoy a peaceful life.

The stakes are high, for security experts say that through the rapid growth of al-Shabab Somalia threatens to become the new leading training ground for international terrorism following some Western success in decimating the ranks of forces based in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There are even calls for Western intervention in the conflict through air strikes as we have seen recently implemented in other countries where more peaceful methods to resolve conflicts has failed (e.g. Libya).

Given its strategic location abutting vital world trade routes through the Red Sea and not far from the Gulf, Somalia simply cannot be allowed to continue falling into total anarchy.

The trouble is that it is no longer really a viable entity as a country unless the global community takes a strong hand. There are, in fact, several "countries" of a sort existing at present.

There is Somaliland (formerly a British colony) that has become a semi-autonomous region and is not that keen on being bolted on to other more turbulent parts of the territory. Then there is the area of "Puntland", which is where the main pirate threat comes from, although there does seem some tenuous sense of stability there at present. Finally, there are warlords and leaders from self-styled regions like Azania, on the Kenyan border, Jubaland in the south, and various other clan-based groups.

Over the past two decades, these warlords and groups have made huge fortunes from manipulating food aid, smuggling, extortion and piracy and they really have very little incentive right now to opt for a peace that would diminish their control.

In a final communiqué, the 55 countries and organizations attending the London conference pledged to support the handover of political power from the present transitional government in Mogadishu, whose mandate ends in August, to a new administration. They also promised to provide more support to the AU peacekeepers and also crack down by using the device of bringing suspects to trial in countries away from Somalia (indeed, as far away as the Republic of Korea).

Meanwhile, Britain is establishing a new intelligence base in the Indian Ocean on the Seychelles Islands to coordinate the military operation against the pirates.

But peace and stability may still be a very distant dream. The conference did support the principle of the Somali people being in charge of their own destiny, while also raising the prospect of international invention – not just militarily but also through foreign management of the national budget in a bid to stop endemic corruption that has crippled the country for years.

There were four different Somali "presidents" attending the London meeting – each representing a different part of the shattered state and each seeking to maximize his own power in the new administrative arrangement.

Outside military intervention – whether the enlarged AU peacekeeping force or the suggested air attacks by NATO or other forces – still seems to be a strong possibility unless the fighting ability of al-Shababis drastically curbed and it has proved very high successful in recruiting young Muslims from Britain and other Western states to join the proclaimed jihad.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.h5a3.com/opinion/geoffreymurray.htm

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