This writer saw what that meant during a fraught year in Vietnam with the Australian Army!

Ruinous Asian land wars are out of the question after Korea and Vietnam. Now, the strategy is to ensure a very strong US air-sea capability in the adjoining Pacific and Indian oceans to match the growing strength of China.

Not all Australians think US bases are a good idea, however. The opposition argument seems to be that any such move will appear threatening to China, which will cause it to increase the size of its military, which, in turn, will scare China's neighbors and America, and cause them to further strengthen their own military capabilities to can contain China.

This, of course, is a classic security dilemma that is likely to cause trouble and more instability, as the Indonesian Government has also made clear.

India, meanwhile, offers attractions as a western anchor of this strategy in return for more US assistance in its modernization both economic and military. Indeed, Indian commentators recently have been discussing the leverage their country can gain from an American return to the Asian center stage.

But one of the most intriguing aspects is the prospect of closer ties between the US and Myanmar - long a target of vilification and Western sanctions for alleged suppression of opposition forces typified by Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi.

Myanmar has suddenly become important as it is about to assume the revolving chairmanship of ASEAN, and President Obama sent a clear signal of Washington's interest by sending Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to Yangon for exploratory talks.

What has got the Obama Administration excited is a perception that, while China has been Myanmar's strongest supporter during the years of international diplomatic and economic isolation, Burmese remain wary of their powerful northern neighbor.

A recent analysis I have seen talks of China's 'Two-Ocean Strategy'. This relates to the fact that, unlike America, blessed with east and west-facing coasts, China fronts only the Pacific. But much of its imports of crude oil and other key commodities come via the Indian Ocean, funneled through the narrow Malacca Straits and vulnerable to crippling interdiction by hostile forces.

Myanmar offers a solution through Chinese-owned ports and pipelines, so the American argument goes- enough reason to send Secretary Clinton jetting off to fish in troubled waters.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.h5a3.com/opinion/geoffreymurray.htm

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