Under Clinton, Attorney General Janet Reno stood her ground in the Elian Gonzales affair, returning the rescued child to his father in Havana after his mother drowned in the Florida Keys trying to get to Miami.

The end of Clinton's second term was too tumultuous to add the political consequences of seeking to lift the Cuban embargo to his list of problems. But on his first visit to London after he left office, Clinton was reported by the British and US press as having bought and lit a Cuban cigar at Heathrow Airport – something illegal in America.

Many agree Obama may not risk his second-term re-election chances by opening talks on the Cuban blockade during his first term. But proponents of improved relations point to smaller things that can be done to send more positive signs and signals to Havana from Washington.

The "dry foot, wet foot" policy Washington applies to Cuban refugees landing on US soil by boat is one such area. Those intercepted are officially deemed deportable, but those who land qualify for official processing and legal entry. Critics advocate a uniform policy.

But what Cuba would most like is for Obama to put the US blockade on his agenda. The embargo is estimated to have cost the island over US$93 billion in lost revenue since 1962. Additionally, Cuba estimates it has also lost US$20.9 billion due to hurricanes and other weather phenomena between 1998 and 2008.

There's much hope everywhere that Presidents Obama and Castro will smoke the peace pipe. The conditions seem right – the best ever, some say, for the two to Tango.

So, will Obama better Clinton and light up a Cuban cigar at the Oval Office? Will Raul Castro be invited to dance the Salsa at the White House? Will Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama be invited to visit the almost life-size replica of the US Capitol in Old Havana? Will the embargo become history after 50 years in 2012?

It's all possible, but it all depends on so much of the unknown – and the unseen.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.h5a3.com/opinion/node_7107878.htm

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