New Zealand's main opposition the National Party leads the ruling Labor Party and is poised to win the election, according to the final round of polls before Saturday's general elections.
The last opinion poll released before the election puts the National Party ahead of Labor by 7.5 points. Four other polls published on Thursday and Friday also put National in the lead, but by a greater margin.
The Roy Morgan poll published on Friday evening put National on 42 percent support, down one point from the previous poll, and Labor up 2.5 points to 34.5 percent - giving National a 7.5 percent lead.
Under such scenario, National would have the best chance of forming a government, but Labor could still do so if the Maori Party supported it.
The telephone poll carried out between Oct. 20 and Nov. 2 surveyed 1,038 voters and has a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
Two political polls published earlier on Friday both put the National Party well ahead of Labor.
The Fairfax Neilson poll showed the biggest gap, with National down two points to 49 percent, but Labor unable to bridge the gap, also down two to 31 percent.
And the Herald-DigiPoll showed National down 2.5 points to 47.9 percent, with Labor down slightly to 36.4 percent.
The 47-year-old John Key, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. currency trader who now leads the National Party after entering politics in 2002, is seeking victory from Prime Minister Helen Clark, who wants to become the first Labor leader to win four elections. Clark may need to rely on other parties such as the Green Party, which averages 8 percent support, to form coalitions and retain power.
The election victor will take control of an 130 billion NZ dollars (76 billion U.S. dollars) economy in its first recession in 10 years after a drought cut farm exports, the housing market slumped and rising fuel and food costs cut retail spending.
Unemployment rose to a five-year high in the three months ended Sept. 30, when the nation's economy probably contracted for a third straight quarter, according to Treasury and central bank estimates.
Political analysts said the National party could form a new government with two micro-parties, the Act party and the United Future party.
There was a "strong mood for change" among the New Zealand voters after the Labor-led government ruled the country for nine years.
"The National Party is on the verge of achieving something historic, something which had been thought impossible," said John Armstrong, a political commentator of the New Zealand Herald.
(Xinhua News Agency November 7, 2008)
