That doesn't mean Obama's economic plan is undisputably superior than McCain's. It is rather a party legacy thing.
Based on a research of Princeton University, during past 50 years, the U.S. economy was better under Democratic presidents than it was under Republican presidents.
Under Democratic presidents, the middle and lower economic class got more benefits while the rich were the biggest beneficiary under Republican presidents.
Analysts said unless McCain presents a clearly superior economic plan, which looks not very likely, he has little chance to outperform the Democrat on the economic issue. Worse for him, the economy will remain the dominating issue of the campaign, given the nation's economic situation.
It won't be over until it is over
Comparing McCain's current standing to history, he's chance to win the election now looks dim. Obama's current lead of 7 to 8 percentage in average poll rating, is very hard for McCain to overcome if previous elections were the guide.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large at this point and continued to win: Ronald Reagan.
But there is a difference. In 1980, Reagan was the candidate of an opposition party challenging an unpopular incumbent, Democrat Jimmy Carter. At present, McCain is the ruling party's candidate linked to an unpopular president.
Larry Bartels, a political scientist at Princeton, thought Obama has a over 90 percent of chances to win the election. But others are less sure that the race is effectively over.
Analysts like Walter Sapiro at Salon.com, argued that McCain can still win, noting that in an information age, the voter's mood is very easy to change. Then there is the "October surprise" which could shake up the whole race, like a national security incident or even a grave terrorist threat. McCain can also make a surprise move once again, like he chose little-known Sara Palin as the running mate in August.
Finally, there is the creepy but existing issue of racism. Obama, born to a white mother and a black father, faces certain resistance because of his color.
But the race factor is very hard to quantify and it remains a myth until the votes were counted.
Overall, the race is not finished at the moment but the "moment of truth" is coming quickly as the election day is only 20 days away.
(Xinhua News Agency October 16, 2008)
