New British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has led his Labor Party
to its biggest poll lead over the opposition since before the Iraq
War, a survey showed yesterday.
Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair on June 27, has helped give
Labor a 10-point lead over the Conservative Party, a YouGov poll in
the Sunday Times showed.
The poll, and another in the Sunday Mirror also showing
Labor ahead, coincides with a slump in the Conservatives' fortunes
and will fuel speculation that Brown will call a general election
later this year or next.
Over past weeks, Labor has enjoyed a consistent poll lead that
suggests more than just a bounce, commentators said.
"The lead is clearly real," said YouGov chairman and political
analyst Peter Kellner. "There is the possibility there that this
will be more sustained rather than a short honeymoon."
Brown must call an election by 2010. Before he took over, most
analysts expected the next election to be in 2009.
"If polls remain at the current level for the next five weeks
then I think he has the option of going early," said Kellner,
referring to a possible vote later this year or 2008.
Many analysts, however, note Brown's characteristic caution and
do not expect him to rush to seek a mandate after waiting a decade
to succeed Blair.
YouGov put Labor up two points from last month at 42 percent
with the Conservatives down one point at 32 percent. The Liberal
Democrats, the third largest party, polled 14 percent.
The lead is Labor's biggest in a YouGov survey since November
2002, before Blair's decision to back the US-led Iraq War prompted
a collapse in support for the ruling party.
If Britons voted at an election along the lines of the YouGov
poll, Brown would add about 100 seats to the 66-seat majority Labor
won at the 2005 election, Kellner said.
In a second poll by ICM for the Sunday Mirror, Labor
scored a six-point lead over the Conservatives, polling 39 percent
against 33 percent.
Brown won approval in both polls for his handling of a recent
outbreak of foot and mouth disease among cattle. He has also had to
deal with a flooding crisis and attempted car bomb attacks in
London and Glasgow since he took over.
(China Daily via agencies August 13, 2007)
