"There is a potential for explosion," according to Meyrav Wurmser, the director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.
Israel began mobilizing forces alongside the Lebanese border this week, she said, adding that Hezbollah leader Hassan "Nasrallah's violent actions and speeches in the past few weeks were done for a reason. He wants conflict with Israel," she said.
As for one of the possible reasons for what Wurmser perceives as Nasrallah's verbal aggression and the possibility of a fresh outbreak of violence, she said, given Hezbollah's effective defeat in the June elections, the organization is looking to call the shots elsewhere. While it is now playing second fiddle to the anti-Syrian March 14 bloc, it does rule the roost militarily, with most defense analysts agreeing that it is far stronger than the official Lebanese army, added Wurmser.
Wurmser's point about domestic Lebanese politics is also picked up by many experts as they seek to understand the current dynamics between Israel and Hezbollah. But some use the same issue to argue that, if anything, Hezbollah is too busy with internal Lebanese affairs to bother with Israel for the time being.
"Hezbollah leadership is focused on the domestic political process...It is concentrating its efforts in this direction and recognizes that confrontation with Israel would jeopardize its standing in negotiations with (Prime Minister Designate Saad) Hariri and his allies," said Geoff Porter, the Middle East and Africa director at the Eurasia Group in New York.
Porter is well aware that any incident whether accidental or otherwise could send the parties back towards open warfare. Not only could Hezbollah be the catalyst for that, he argues, but also some of the other armed players in southern Lebanon.
Some analysts said that any potential hostility would probably be initiated on the Lebanese side of the border. Israel cannot afford to enter another conflict. However, should push come to shove and Hezbollah was to provoke Israel, the response would be considerable, the analysts suggest.
It is with all of these scenarios in mind, to say nothing of the Syrian role in regional politics, that UNIFIL is attempting to keep the peace. Its senior officer in Lebanon chaired a four-hour meeting between top Lebanese and Israeli military personnel at Naqoura on the Lebanese side of the border on Tuesday, the Lebanese Daily Star reported.
Israel is deeply cynical about UNIFIL's ability to ensure quiet prevails but knows that for the time being that is the only option on the table. There is talk of Israel pushing for a negotiated peace agreement with Beirut that would further weaken Hezbollah, but so far, publicly at least, most leading Lebanese politicians have spoken out against an early peace deal with Israel, with most believing a Syrian-Israeli peace would have to be brokered first and only then would Lebanon enter the picture.
All of that means for the time being Israel and Hezbollah continue to eye one another closely from either side of the border knowing that a single, overly-itchy finger on a trigger could bring about a return of the fighting that left so many dead and wounded just three years ago.
(Xinhua News Agency July 30, 2009)
