Analysts from around the world are spending two days in Beijing,
examining the impact the SARS disease is likely to have on the
Asian economy. The workshop is a joint effort by the Boao Forum for
Asia and the Asian Development Bank. Chinese government officials,
economists from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and
representatives from international organizations are taking part in
the meeting.
The workshop has enough special guests participating to warrant
medical staff in attendance. Every participant gets their
temperature checked upon entry.
Top economists in China and Asia gathered to brainstorm ways to
minimize the impact of SARS on the economy and agreed that the
duration of SARS will determine the size of economic tolls.
Long Yongtu, secretary general of Boao Forum for Asia, said, " If
SARS lasts only to the second quarter, there will be a 0.2 percent
drop of GDP. If situation cannot be controlled and it lasts to the
third quarter, there will be a 0.5 percent drop of GDP."
Signs of the SARS impact are emerging. Catering, tourism and
transportation industries are feeling the pain. However, the
economists at this workshop say the shock will be limited to only
these sectors, and that the overall impact will be temporary.
Deepak Bhattasali, chief economist of World Bank Resident Mission
in China, said, " SARS ... don't have persistent results .. it
postpones purchasing, investment, but after it, sudden rush back to
investment ... "
They say the investment environment of Asia, particularly in China,
will remain unchanged given the strong fundamentals of cheap labor
and huge consumer markets.
Ernst H. Behrens, chairman of European Chamber of Commerce, said,
"In my capacity of EU Chamber of Commerce, investors have a much
more long－term outlook. We are seeing very clear signs
at the moment that the number of SARS are dropping. It will not
have much impact on investment."
Optimism prevails at the workshop. But economists believe that the
greatest lesson from SARS will be a learning experience for crisis
－ and economic － management. They also agree
that the most significant aspect of that lesson is the crucial role
of government.
Justin Lin, director of China Economic Research Center, Peking
University, said, "I have four suggestions to the government, one
is institutionalized respond to shocks, poor people will be taken
care, improve our institutions ..., and carry out reforms."
Despite the uncertainties of the nature and development of SARS,
participants are generally optimistic about the impact on the
economy. But they also believe its implications for policy will be
long－term with ramifications going far into the
future.
(Xinhua News Agency May 14, 2003)