Growing to an aging society, China will inevitably lose the
advantage in labor force, and its economic development will slow
down as a result, said a new report of the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences.
With the successful birth control measures, China will have
fewer young people to support the economic growth and the aging
society in 50 years, said the newly published Green Paper on
Population and Labor.
Cai Chuang, one of the authors of the report said as result of
the family planning policy, China's natural growth rate dropped to
less than six per 1,000 in 2004.
It took China only 30 years to complete the road of birth
control while the developed countries used more than 100 years,
said Cai, adding that one of the side effects is an aging
society.
China has currently 100.55 million aged above 65, accounting for
7.7 percent of the total. It is forecasted that the aged population
will reach 170 million in 2010, 12.5 percent of the total, and 243
million, 17 percent of the total in 2020, according to China
National Committee on Aging.
"China will be the only country in the world that grows old
before becoming rich," said Cai.
The aging trend is also shown in the country's labor force, Cai
said.
China Population and Development Research Center said the amount
of China's labor force expects to rise until reaching the peak of
997 million in 2016, but then decline each year.
"The supply of labor force, one of the basic advantages of
China's economic development, is not optimistic in the future,"
said Cai.
China's economic growth depends largely on labor-intensive
manufacturing, and the situation can not be changed for a long
time, Cai said.
The green paper reported that the problem has already emerged in
some regions including the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River
Delta, where the supply of labor force could not meet the demand
since 2004.
(Xinhua News Agency August 23, 2006)