A Chinese medical expert warned here Wednesday that China's northern province of Hebei would see an upward but slow SARS infection trend.
Cai Quancai, a senior analyst with the national severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) prevention and treatment team, noted at a press conference that the SARS-affected areas were expanding within the province, and signs that the disease was spreading to the province's rural areas loomed.
Cai explained that the possible rise of SARS infection in Hebeicould be attributed to the upsurge of many suspect cases becoming confirmed cases, and he added that the imported cases of migrant workers and students traveling back home was another major cause of the rise.
Official statistics showed that 70 percent of the provincial diagnosed cases had developed from suspect cases but the new diagnosed cases were in a sharp drop in recent days.
Cai said Hebei province had recorded a spike of suspect cases in recent days and, according to the epidemiological theory that most suspect cases turn to diagnosed cases within three days, the province could expect to witness a slow rise of the infection rate three or four days later.
Good omens for controlling the disease also appeared, said Cai,referring to the favorable weather conditions and effective measures adopted by the local government.
"May is the critical period to contain the spread of the infectious disease," Cai stressed.
Cai also revealed that Hebei province had registered a 22-percent farmer infection rate of SARS, higher than any other Chinese disease-affected areas, adding that if the infectors of rural migrant laborers was added, the percentage would reach 33.5 percent.
As of 10:00 a.m. May 14, there were 194 diagnosed SARS cases and 109 suspect cases reported in Hebei Province.
(Xinhua News Agency May 15, 2003)
