The deadly bird flu is most likely to occur between January and March. Some of China's closest neighbors -including Thailand, the Republic of Korea and Japan -have suffered outbreaks of the highly pathogenic disease.
Bird flu has killed 22 people in Viet Nam and 12 in Thailand last year.
According to the World Health Organization, there have been 47 human infections in Thailand and Viet Nam from January 1, 2004 to January 10, 2005, among which the 34 people died. Bird flu was first diagnosed more than 100 years ago in Italy. But in recent years, a highly pathogenic form of bird flu has made it famous.
Fortunately, to date, there has not been a bird flu outbreak reported in China. But that doesn't mean it can't happen.
Dr Roo Changizi, chairman of the Infection Control Department at Beijing United Family Hospital offered details about the disease and steps people can take to protect themselves.
Bird flu was first diagnosed in 1878 in Italy, when people noticed chickens had ruffled feathers and were producing fewer eggs. Later, they discovered the disease was highly pathogenic, killing birds quickly and was capable of infecting humans.
The virus jumped species - to other birds, tigers, pigs and humans.
There are antigenic shifts during reproduction, when new strains of bird flu appear.
When flu viruses in animals and humans occur in the same animal or human, a new virus, for which there are no antibodies, may develop, which can result in an epidemic.
"The new strain of virus would be very dangerous, because nobody is immune," Changizi said. "That is why there are media alerts about the bird flu."
Influenza epidemics occur three to five times a century. They kill millions of people. The last flu epidemic occurred in 1968.
"It has been years since we had an influenza epidemic," Changizi said.
"Scientists around the world are monitoring. They worry a new epidemic might occur within the next few years."
Changizi said bird flu survives best in cold environments. The disease can be killed within 30 minutes in 60 degrees centigrade.
Bird flu is not an immediate threat to Chinese residents.
"It's not yet a real threat to the general public,'' Changizi said.
Still, Changizi urges people not to buy live chickens. When cooking chicken, he added, people should wash their hands and ensure there is no cross-contamination between the chicken and other foods.
He also urges people to wash the eggs they buy.
"Once the chicken is cooked, and the eggs are cooked, the virus is dead," Changizi said.
Dr Roo Changizi treats patients at Beijing United Family Hospital.
(China Daily January 14, 2005)
