Japan's emergency restrictions on imports of onions, mushrooms and tatami rushes are politically motivated and are expected to come to an end soon, thus making a trade war between China and Japan unlikely, trade analysts believe.
The Japanese government decided to levy high customs duties from April 23 to November 8 on imports of onions, mushrooms and tatami rushes from China that exceed certain amounts specified by the government.
"It's doubtful that imports have driven down market prices and damaged domestic industries," said Yuzo Nakashita, general manager of the Beijing and Shanghai offices of the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade.
Nakashita believed, therefore, the measure was "politically motivated" as the Japanese government tries to win farmers' support in the coming July senator election.
Nakashita said he was optimistic that his government would withdraw its restrictive measures after the July election, and as such that they would not have too large an impact.
He said he believed the government would take care to ensure that the restrictive measures do not directly affect Japanese consumers or Sino-Japan trade relations.
Japanese statistics show imports made up 8 percent of Japan's onion sales, 39 percent of mushroom sales and 59 percent of tatami rush sales last year. China is a major supplier of Japan's imports of onions, mushrooms and tatami rushes.
China has vowed to avenge any losses incurred by Japan's temporary restrictions on the farm imports, despite the fact that these products take up only a very small portion of the US$85 billion Sino-Japan trade.
Long Guoqiang, a senior researcher with the Development Research Center, a think tank of the State Council, said China must retaliate, for there are dangers that the restrictive measure might spread to other products such as textiles and farm produces.
Japanese media reported that the Japanese government has started investigations into towel imports and that chopstick producers are also applying for protective measures against imports, which mainly come from China.
"China must take measures to make Japan realize that its protectionist behavior could backfire," said Long.
Long suggested that retaliation be taken on finished products such as television sets and cars.
He pointed out that Japanese farmers are having a hard time because Japan's agriculture is very uncompetitive, not because of imports.
But Japanese farmers are well organized and politically influential and successfully forced the Japanese government to adopt protective measures, he said.
(China Daily 05/05/2001)
