Over the next 30 years China's population will increase by 200
million, according to statistics published on Thursday.
The report by the State Population and Family Planning
Commission paints a clear picture of China's projected population
growth and outlines plans to resolve current related issues.
The implementation of the family-planning policy in 1973 reduced
Chinese women's fertility rate to about 1.8 by the mid to late
1990s, states the report.?
China's population is expected to reach 1.36 billion by 2010 and
1.45 billion by 2020. The peak will come in 2033 when the number
will hit 1.5 billion, predicts the report.
It says China has an aging population with seniors over 60
numbering 143 million. This is 11 percent of the total.
By 2020 there'll be 234 million people over the age of 60,
accounting for 16 percent of the country's total population, a
sharp rise on the 9.9 percent in 2000.
The report estimates that by the late 2040s those aged over 60
will number 430 million or 30 percent of the country's total
population with more than 320 million - or 22 percent - over
65.
Those over 80, the report says, will reach 22 million and 83
million in 2020 and 2050, respectively.
The report predicts that China will face increased tensions
caused by the conflict between a large population and limited
resources. By the end of 2016 China's labor force, aged 15 to 64,
will number 1.01 billion. This is well in excess of the total
number of workers in all developed countries.
The research observes that many Chinese workers won't be
qualified to compete internationally because of low health and
educational status.
Statistics show that China reports 800,000 to 1.2 million
abnormal newborn babies each year. This accounts for four to six
percent of births and the figure has continued to rise. Mental
illness is on the increase and diseases such as AIDS continue to
threaten public health, the report states.
These problems have affected social development and harmony, the
efficiency of resource use and the overall competitiveness of the
nation, the report observes.?
It suggests maintaining and improving the family-planning policy
in an effort to restrict the population to 1.36 billion in
2010.
According to the plan detailed in the report county and
town-level agencies in rural areas should improve their services to
better implement family planning policies. Families with one child
will be rewarded by the government and the endowment insurance
system in rural areas should be strengthened to improve care for
the elderly.
The report also calls for improvements to the nine-year
compulsory education system, the control of HIV/AIDS and public
health services.
(Xinhua News Agency January 12, 2007)