Beijing Youth Daily:

The results of the revised GDP for 2023 were announced just now. What impact will this have on the economic growth rate for 2024? In addition, after the revision of the national data, will the economic data of each province, autonomous region and municipality for 2023 also be revised accordingly? Thank you.

Kang Yi:

I would like to invite Mr. Lin to answer your questions.

Lin Tao:

Thank you for your questions. Regarding the issue of GDP data revision, as Mr. Kang just mentioned in his briefing, the NBS revised the preliminary GDP figures for 2023 based on the results of the fifth national economic census and data from relevant departments, in accordance with international practices and relevant provisions of the system of national economic accounts. After the data revision, the total GDP for 2023 increased, and the proportion of the tertiary industry increased. This revision of GDP includes two aspects: one is based on the data from the fifth national economic census, and the other is based on the reform of the accounting method for urban residents' self-owned housing services. Among them, the revision based on the data of the fifth national economic census is the smallest compared with revisions of the previous four national economic censuses, reflecting that with continued improvements to the statistical survey system, the quality of the country's regular annual statistical data is constantly improving. Regarding the questions raised by the reporter just now, I would like to answer from the following three aspects:

First, regarding the GDP data revision. Revising GDP data is an internationally accepted practice and has long been a working practice of the Chinese government regarding statistics. Whenever there are changes or updates to the basic data, accounting methods or classification standards required for GDP calculation, it is necessary to revise the historical GDP data. Everyone knows that GDP accounting requires a large amount of basic data. The more comprehensive the basic data, the higher the quality, and the higher the accuracy of GDP data, the better it can reflect the actual situation of national economic development. According to China's current GDP accounting system, the annual GDP accounting is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Preliminary accounting puts more focus on timeliness. It is mainly derived using specialized statistical progress information and departments' administrative records. The preliminary accounting of GDP for the previous year is announced at the beginning of each year. The final verification involves revising the preliminary accounting results using more abundant basic data, such as annual reports of specialized information, departmental financial statistics and fiscal accounts. In the year of an economic census, the preliminary GDP calculation figures for that year will be revised mainly based on the more comprehensive, accurate and detailed basic data obtained from the economic census. At the same time, the historical GDP data will also be revised to ensure the historical comparability of GDP data. We will release detailed data about this revision on the official website of the NBS in the near future.

Second, regarding the impact of the revision of the 2023 GDP accounting data on the GDP growth rate in 2024. In general, after verifying the GDP for 2023, the total GDP in 2024 will change, but the 2024 GDP growth rate accounting will not be significantly affected. According to China's current GDP accounting method, the preliminary calculation of GDP is mainly extrapolated by the speed of growth of relevant indexes. In other words, when calculating the GDP for 2024, it is based on the revised GDP for 2023, using the growth rate of different industry-related indicators. That is, the growth rate of value added of each industry in 2024 is first calculated, and then the total value added in 2024 is calculated based on this growth rate and the total value added from the previous year. So, although the revised GDP for 2023 will change in terms of total amount, it will not significantly impact the GDP growth rate for 2024. Judging from the past four economic censuses, data revisions have not had a significant impact on the GDP growth rate in subsequent years.

Third, we are also working intensively on the revision of GDP for each region. At present, the NBS is revising the preliminary calculation figures and historical data of the gross regional product for 2023 of each province, autonomous region and municipality based on the data of the fifth national economic census. The revision will take some time due to the relatively large workload. After the revision, the final verified figures of GDP for each province, autonomous region and municipality in 2023 will be authorized by the NBS and announced by the statistical bureaus of each province, autonomous region and municipality when they release the preliminary calculated figures of regional GDP for the whole year of 2024 in January 2025. The historical revised data on GDP of each province, autonomous region and municipality will be released to the public via the NBS database and the statistical yearbooks of each region in the second half of 2025. Thank you.