China's economy may stage a rebound in the second quarter, driven by the country's proactive fiscal and monetary policies and the massive stimulus package launched in November, said economists as they anticipate key economic data due to be released tomorrow.
China's gross domestic product may grow 7.8 percent in the second quarter, from a 6.1-percent rise in the first three months, which was the weakest in at least 17 years, according to a survey by Bloomberg News based on a forecast of 20 economists.
Guo Tongxin, an analyst at the National Bureau of Statistics, earlier said China's economy may grow by close to 8 percent in the second quarter.
The bureau is set to unveil the GDP and other economic data, including retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investment, tomorrow.
Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said "we expect the data to show economic growth has obviously rebounded, although driven mainly by the government's stimulus rather than a pickup in private or external demand."
The 4-trillion-yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus package was cited as mostly responsible for the economic recovery while new yuan lending in China totaled 7.37 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, a record high under the government's proactive monetary policies.
Wang Qing, a Morgan Stanley economist, said the "green shoots" in China's economy have taken root and the bouts of optimism came from the improved data in May's consumption, industrial production and investment.
"Despite sustained weakness in export data, other economic indicators are pointing to buoyant domestic demand and a robust recovery in overall GDP growth in the second quarter of this year," Wang said.
China's retail sales rose 15.2 percent from a year ago to 1 trillion yuan in May, up from the 14.8-percent rise in April.
(Shanghai Daily July 15, 2009)
