Chinese astrologer Tony Tan, a former broker at DBS Securities,
made money for his clients in 2007 by telling them Asian equity
markets would turn in "peak performances" in the Year of the Pig.
He's predicting losses in the Year of the Mouse, which starts
tomorrow.
"Just like a rat, investors will have to be nimble," said
Singapore-based Tan, an astrologer since 1995 and founder of the
Harmony Academy of Chinese Metaphysics. "It's going to be a highly
competitive year."
Water creature
Chinese astrology, based on a mix of philosophy and astronomy
dating back more than 3,000 years, has 12 animals that combine with
five elements to define each year, making up a 60-year cycle. This
year the Mouse, a "water" creature, combines with the "earth"
cycle, another unstable combination according to Tan.
Stock markets are already falling. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
dropped nine percent in January, its worst monthly performance
since September 2001, after a 12-percent gain last year, Bloomberg
News said.
Benchmarks in 11 of the region's 14 largest markets including
Chinese mainland and Hong Kong and Singapore reached all-time highs
in the Year of the Pig. MSCI's Asian index reached a record on
November 1.
Tan expects markets to bottom out in April, a "dangerous" month
for stocks because of clashing elements. Prices may rebound as the
Year of the Mouse continues, without setting new highs, he
said.
"The Year of the Pig was one of optimal strength," Tan said.
"We're not going to see a repeat of those gains."
More bullish
More than 60 percent of 1,572 South Koreans surveyed recently
said they had consulted an astrologer for the Lunar New Year or
planned to do so, according to CareerNet Co, an online
job-information provider in Seoul.
Some fortunetellers are more bullish than Tan. Malaysia-based
Joey Yap, whose feng shui seminar in Kuala Lumpur last month drew a
crowd of more than 3,000 participants, said there will be plenty of
opportunities to profit this year.
"There's uncertainty, but there's also a lot of activity and
growth," Yap said. Investors should buy shares of companies in the
commodity-related, medical and transport industries, he said,
citing their favorable elements in this lunar year.
Asia index falls
In the last Earth-Mouse Year between February 10, 1948, and
January 28, 1949, China was divided by civil war and Japan was
still recovering from its defeat in World War II. The MSCI Asia
index fell 19 percent in the most recent Year of the Mouse, a
"fire" year, between February 19, 1996 and February 6, 1997.
(Shanghai Daily February 7, 2008)
