New inflation management measures in the air

4月份宏觀經濟運行數據公布在即 提準加息如箭在弦

China will continue to use price tools to manage inflation expectation, China’s central bank told Xinhua Tuesday.

As inflation and currency appreciation pressures mount, analysts predict the Peoples Bank of China will continue to raise interest rates and increase the required reserve ratio, considered by many experts the best solution for hedging foreign exchange.

Experts expect both rates will be lifted again over the next two months.

Raising bank reserve requirement ratios is based on the excessive liquidity and will not have an upper limit.

"Considering the massive liquidity in May, it is not enough for the central bank count on issuing bills to hedge the foreign exchange," said a trader from a state-owned commercial bank.

The data indicates that the inflation pressure in China is intensifying. The central bank may use interest tools to curb inflation at any time, the trader added.

The nation's consumer price index is expected to have risen more than 5 percent in April. Although food prices dropped slightly last month, non-food prices saw a larger increase than in March.

April macroeconomic and financial data will be released next Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

據新華社報道，中國央行將繼續運用價格調控手段，以管理通脹預期。

分析人士預測，隨著通脹和人民幣升值的壓力繼續加大，央行會再次加息和提高存款準備金率。上調存款準備金率仍是對沖外匯占款的最優選擇。

專家預測：提準和加息的可能性在5月和6月都存在。

央行再次強調，提高存款準備金率是針對偏多流動性，且不存在絕對上限。

"5月份如此巨量的流動性，僅靠發行央票對沖是不現實的，再次上調存款準備金率已提上議事日程。"一家國有商業銀行的交易員稱。

數據表明，中國未來一段時間通貨膨脹上行壓力增大。上述交易員稱，利率這個應對通脹最有效的工具也有可能隨時再次降臨。

據多家機構預測，4月份CPI指數同比增幅仍在5%以上。盡管食品價格環比小幅下跌，但非食品類價格環比上漲高于前期。

下周三（5月11日）國家統計局將公布4月份CPI等宏觀數據，當月金融運行數據也將公布。