Shanghai's industrial production may grow at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of this year due to the higher comparative base and uncertainties in exports, said a report released yesterday by the Shanghai Statistics Bureau.

In the first three quarters, industrial production in the city expanded an annual 25.1 percent to 2.16 trillion yuan (US$324.8 billion), down 6.8 percentage points from that in the first quarter and 3.7 percentage points less compared with the increase in the first half.

In September, the city's manufacturing output gained 15.9 percent from a year earlier, slowing from the rise of 21.1 percent in August.

"The moderation is mainly due to a higher base of comparison last year," said Wang Zehua, an analyst at the bureau.

He said the trend of a weaker growth may extend into the current quarter while uncertainties in exports could exert some influence.

"If exports rebound as we sincerely hope, it may help lift industrial production," Wang said. "But very likely, with the orders for Christmas already being finished, exports may see a slower growth as well."

Shanghai's exports rose 22.1 percent on an annual basis to US$16.1 billion last month, compared with August's increase of 25.5 percent. High-tech products led growth in exports, surging 31.5 percent to US$7.5 billion.

Shanghai's six key industries - information technology, auto, refinery, fine steel, machinery equipment and biomedicine - reported their production swelled 29.3 percent from a year earlier in the first three quarters, 4.2 percentage points more than the overall industrial production expansion.

Shanghai is on track to achieve its target of an 8 percent economic growth this year, which is set slightly lower to reflect the local government's determination to revamp the economic structure.

The city's gross domestic product expanded 12.7 percent from a year earlier in the first six months, after recording an 8.2 percent increase for the whole of last year.