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China's consumer prices rose by 3.9 percent in February, compared with the same period a year ago, seemingly picking up from the 1.9 percent rise in January.

However, the National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer price index (CPI), the key inflation gauge for policy-makers, is not comparable in January and February.

The week-long traditional Lunar New Year holiday, which came in January in 2004 but fell in February this year, always has an impact on the single month CPI of January and February.

The CPI rose a year-on-year 2.9 percent for the first two months, reducing the possibility of a further interest rate hike.

Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank, said the first two months' CPI was within his expectations and grew at a reasonable rate.

February's CPI only showed a small sign of a possible rebound, he said.

"This minimizes the likelihood of a new interest rate hike in the near future," he said.

Liang Hong, China economist at Goldman Sachs (Asia), said the CPI for February was "above our expectation and market consensus."

"We believe the central bank is likely to hold in the interest rate decision, as the jump in CPI in February seems to be more of a temporary spike due to the Lunar New Year effect," Liang said. "We expect CPI to resume the softening trend in the coming months and maintain our 2.6 percent CPI forecast for the year."

China's CPI had declined since reaching a seven-year high of 5.3 percent in July and August last year.

The CPI for the whole of last year stood at 3.9 percent.

Figures from the statistics bureau suggest the main driver for the rise in February's CPI was higher food prices.

Food prices rose year-on-year by 8.8 percent in February compared with the 4.0 percent rise in January due to the Lunar New Year.

The price of fresh eggs rose by as much as 16.3 percent in February, while vegetables rose by 13.1 percent.

The producer price index reflecting the future trend of the CPI continued its softening trend and fell to 5.4 percent in February from 5.8 percent in January.

Qi Jingmei, a senior economist with the State Information Center, said the CPI for the first two months simply reflects the true market situation.

"The growth rate in both grain prices and the prices for industrial products declined," she said.
Price pressure for the first quarter will not be very heavy, she said.

"The CPI for the January-March period will be at around 3 percent," she said.

However, both Qi and Zhuang agreed China's consumer prices will continue to be forced up in the coming months.

The increasing prices for energy and raw materials, as well as the possible rise of workers' salaries, will propel the producer prices of industrial products upwards, Zhuang said.

(China Daily March 12, 2005)