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People caught out by the recent plunge in temperatures can take cold comfort in predictions of a warmer Spring Festival.

According to a source with the Central Meteorological Observatory, the sleet, icy rain and freezing winds that have swept across large areas of North and East China since late last week are due to fade away in several days' time.

And the temperature, which slumped by five to 10 degrees centigrade in most affected areas, is expected to rebound.

"People in most Chinese regions should expect to enjoy plenty of good weather in the first three days of the 7-day-long Spring Festival holidays," an anonymous expert said optimistically.

"Outings, park tours and visiting relatives and friends should not be hindered by the weather during these days."

But as for the rest of the period, lower temperatures might occur sporadically because of some "not strong" cold air currents.

More specific weather forecasts for the Spring Festival holidays, the most important traditional Chinese festival period which runs from February 1-7 this year, will be available on Thursday.

As for next month as a whole, the average temperature is likely to be higher than the normal February average over the past 30 years.

But it is still hard to predict accurately whether the weather will affect the return of thousands of people from their hometown to their work or study, said the expert.

The Spring Festival is a traditional Chinese occasion for family reunions. Thousands of people crowd the roads over this period.

One of the few certainties is that rainfall of all forms will be scarce across the country in February, the expert said.

Wang Zhanggui, a leading researcher with the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, also warned that dry weather was on its way.

Based on his study of the El Nino phenomenon, Wang said the drought might last all spring this year, bringing another thirsty season for North China.

The El Nino phenomenon is caused by abnormal temperature increases in tropical waters off the west coast of South America, which leads to weather and climate anomalies across the globe. It affects China every two to seven years.

After emerging last June, the first El Nino phenomenon of the new century is expected to last till the end of June this year, according to Wang.

(China Daily January 28, 2003)