As the world navigates an era of profound change and uncertainty, China in the future five years will continue acting as a steady anchor, blending unwavering long-term goals with targeted adaptations to new challenges, while creating value for both its own high-quality development and the world, experts said in an outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).

An aerial drone photo shows visitors enjoying the cityscape at The Stage, a new observation deck in Shanghai, April 14, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua] 

The 15th Five-Year Plan is the center of discussion at the ongoing fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

This forthcoming plan will reaffirm China's commitment to high-level opening up, while continuing to inject certainty into the development of both China and the world, said Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Institute for Development Planning at Tsinghua University. 

"Despite external complexities, China has remained focused on managing its own affairs while advancing openness. During the next five years, we have every reason to believe that China's opening up will become even wider," he said, citing the robustness of China's exports as evidence.

On July 18, 2025, the State Council Information Office holds a press conference in Beijing on the achievements in high-quality commerce development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025). [Photo by Liu Jian/China SCIO]

According to official data, China's goods trade has remained the world's largest for eight years straight, increasing by 32.4% from 2020 to 2024, and its service trade surpassed US$1 trillion for the first time last year, ranking second globally.

Dong said he expects to see landmark measures as the country marks the 50th anniversary of reform and opening up in 2028. For example, pilot initiatives in regions like the Hainan Free Trade Port are projected to be scaled into system-wide institutional opening, enabling more mutually beneficial global integration.

"For the international community, the 15th Five-Year Plan will act as a tangible 'opportunity list,'" said Dong, explaining that the tasks and priorities outlined in the plan will offer clear guidance and significant opportunities for foreign investment and foreign businesses, allowing other countries to identify cooperation areas that match their strengths.

A manned aircraft is on exhibit during the China International Digital Economy Expo 2025 in Shijiazhuang, northern China's Hebei province, Oct. 17, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

He added that the plan is also expected to present a continuously expanding and upgrading "model market," where China's consumer model innovations can provide experience for other nations to meet their diverse needs and improve public well-being.

Hong Junjie, president of Shandong University of Finance and Economics, shared a similar stance. "As global supply chains reconfigure for security, China can leverage its industrial system, the most comprehensive in the world, to shift from 'integrating into' global industrial chain to 'anchoring' it, and by exporting products, technologies, standards, and capital in an integrated manner, transform from the world's factory to a global hub of value creation."

Dong, who has been involved in the formulation of several of China's Five-Year Plans, said he expects the upcoming plan to reflect both "continuity" and "adaptation." The vision for Chinese modernization will be translated into more systematic action plans, the cultivation of new quality productive forces will take critical stage, and the development of a unified national market and the expansion of domestic demand will gain greater significance, he predicted.

Both experts noted that competition is becoming increasingly fierce — especially in the technology sector — while global uncertainties continue to rise. Nevertheless, China has an edge in this technological competition, they said.

Hong explained, "Vast application scenarios and an unmatched industrial system can provide an unrivaled testbed for rapid technological advancement and business model innovation." He emphasized the critical opportunity to convert market leverage into technological and standard-setting influence in emerging sectors including AI, as competition has evolved beyond technological breakthroughs to setting standards and rules.

Dong anticipated that the 15th Five-Year Plan period would see China elevate its development quality and foster prosperity for all.

"As long as we stay committed to managing our own affairs well and expanding high-level opening up, we can overcome uncertainties and unexpected challenges," he said.